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France U19 vs Turkey U19 — International Friendlies

France U19 crestFrance U19
Full time2–1
Turkey U19 crestTurkey U19

How the call landed

International Friendlies·1 Oct
Result hit
Model called
France U19 crestFU1–0TUTurkey U19 crest
Full time
France U19 crestFU2–1TUTurkey U19 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 2-1).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.33

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Thu 1 Oct · 12:45 SAST
France U19 crestFrance U19
Projected1–0xG 1.20 · 0.30
Turkey U19 crestTurkey U19

No strong lean — near even (42% / 28% / 30%), projecting 1-0.

FUDrawTU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean42%
Both teams to scoreNo80%
Total goalsUnder 2.581%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (42% / 28% / 30%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.2–0.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 20%, over 2.5 goals 19%. Model projects 1.16–0.34 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FU

    Model projects 1.16–0.34 expected goals

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~81% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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