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Egypt vs South Africa — International Friendlies

Egypt crestEgypt
Full time0–1
South Africa crestSouth Africa

How the call landed

International Friendlies·4 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Egypt crestEGY1–0SASouth Africa crest
Full time
Egypt crestEGY0–1SASouth Africa crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Sun 4 Oct · 20:00 SAST
Egypt crestEgypt
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 0.20
South Africa crestSouth Africa

The model leans Egypt (65%), projecting 1-0.

EGYDrawSA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultEgypt win65%
Both teams to scoreNo89%
Total goalsUnder 2.579%
Double chanceEgypt or draw88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Egypt (65%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 11%, over 2.5 goals 21%. Model projects 1.44–0.15 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → EGY

    Model projects 1.44–0.15 expected goals

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~79% likely

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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