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Maldives vs Lebanon — International Friendlies

Maldives crestMaldives
Full time0–6
Lebanon crestLebanon

How the call landed

International Friendlies·1 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Maldives crestMAL1–2LEBLebanon crest
Full time
Maldives crestMAL0–6LEBLebanon crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-2, finished 0-6).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-6 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.36

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Thu 1 Oct · 14:00 SAST
Maldives crestMaldives
Projected1–2xG 1.70 · 3.20
Lebanon crestLebanon

No strong lean — near even (35% / 25% / 40%), projecting 1-2.

MALDrawLEB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreYes78%
Total goalsOver 2.586%
Double chanceNo strong lean65%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (35% / 25% / 40%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.7–3.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 78%, over 2.5 goals 86%. Model projects 1.72–3.15 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LEB

    Model projects 1.72–3.15 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~86% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~78% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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