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Congo DR vs Uganda — International Friendlies

Congo DR crestCongo DR
Full time0–2
Uganda crestUganda

How the call landed

International Friendlies·2 Oct
1 market hit
Model called
Congo DR crestCD3–0UGAUganda crest
Full time
Congo DR crestCD0–2UGAUganda crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Fri 2 Oct · 13:00 SAST
Congo DR crestCongo DR
Projected3–0xG 0.60 · 2.10
Uganda crestUganda

No strong lean — near even (47% / 32% / 21%), projecting 3-0.

CDDrawUGA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean47%
Both teams to scoreNo62%
Total goalsOver 2.551%
Double chanceNo strong lean79%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (47% / 32% / 21%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 0.6–2.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 38%, over 2.5 goals 51%. Model projects 0.57–2.13 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → UGA

    Model projects 0.57–2.13 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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