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Palestine vs New Zealand — International Friendlies

Palestine crestPalestine
Full time2–2
New Zealand crestNew Zealand

How the call landed

International Friendlies·24 Sep
Missed
Model called
Palestine crestPAL1–0NZNew Zealand crest
Full time
Palestine crestPAL2–2NZNew Zealand crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.25

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Thu 24 Sep · 11:30 SAST
Palestine crestPalestine
Projected1–0xG 0.80 · 0.20
New Zealand crestNew Zealand

No strong lean — near even (50% / 35% / 15%), projecting 1-0.

PALDrawNZ
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean50%
Both teams to scoreNo89%
Total goalsUnder 2.592%
Double chanceNo strong lean85%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (50% / 35% / 15%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.8–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 11%, over 2.5 goals 8%. Model projects 0.76–0.24 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PAL

    Model projects 0.76–0.24 expected goals

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~92% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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