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Kyrgyzstan vs Lebanon — International Friendlies

Kyrgyzstan crestKyrgyzstan
Full time3–1
Lebanon crestLebanon

How the call landed

International Friendlies·4 Oct
Result hit
Model called
Kyrgyzstan crestKYR4–3LEBLebanon crest
Full time
Kyrgyzstan crestKYR3–1LEBLebanon crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 4-3, finished 3-1).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.42

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Sun 4 Oct · 14:00 SAST
Kyrgyzstan crestKyrgyzstan
Projected4–3xG 3.20 · 4.00
Lebanon crestLebanon

No strong lean — near even (36% / 33% / 31%), projecting 4-3.

KYRDrawLEB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean36%
Both teams to scoreYes92%
Total goalsOver 2.595%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (36% / 33% / 31%), projecting 4-3.

Projected 4-3 from 3.2–4.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 92%, over 2.5 goals 95%. Model projects 3.23–4.04 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LEB

    Model projects 3.23–4.04 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~95% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~92% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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