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Hungary U19 vs Bulgaria U19 — International Friendlies

Hungary U19 crestHungary U19
Full time1–1
Bulgaria U19 crestBulgaria U19

How the call landed

International Friendlies·26 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Hungary U19 crestHU2–1BUBulgaria U19 crest
Full time
Hungary U19 crestHU1–1BUBulgaria U19 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Sat 26 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Hungary U19 crestHungary U19
Projected2–1xG 1.30 · 1.90
Bulgaria U19 crestBulgaria U19

No strong lean — near even (39% / 23% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

HUDrawBU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.562%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 23% / 38%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.3–1.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 62%. Model projects 1.32–1.88 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BU

    Model projects 1.32–1.88 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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