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Serbia U19 vs Hungary U19 — International Friendlies

Serbia U19 crestSerbia U19
Full time0–4
Hungary U19 crestHungary U19

How the call landed

International Friendlies·29 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Serbia U19 crestSU1–0HUHungary U19 crest
Full time
Serbia U19 crestSU0–4HUHungary U19 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-4 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickInternational Friendlies
Tue 29 Sep · 16:30 SAST
Serbia U19 crestSerbia U19
Projected1–0xG 0.70 · 1.70
Hungary U19 crestHungary U19

No strong lean — near even (40% / 27% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

SUDrawHU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean40%
Both teams to scoreNo57%
Total goalsUnder 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (40% / 27% / 33%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.7–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 43%, over 2.5 goals 44%. Model projects 0.73–1.72 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → HU

    Model projects 0.73–1.72 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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