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Consadole Sapporo vs Iwaki — J2 League

Consadole Sapporo crestConsadole Sapporo
Full time2–1
Iwaki crestIwaki

How the call landed

J2 League·4 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Consadole Sapporo crestCS1–2IWAIwaki crest
Full time
Consadole Sapporo crestCS2–1IWAIwaki crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.18

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickJ2 League
Sun 4 Oct · 06:00 SAST
Consadole Sapporo crestConsadole Sapporo
Projected1–2xG 1.40 · 2.30
Iwaki crestIwaki

No strong lean — near even (31% / 26% / 43%), projecting 1-2.

CSDrawIWA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean43%
Both teams to scoreYes68%
Total goalsOver 2.572%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (31% / 26% / 43%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.4–2.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 68%, over 2.5 goals 72%. Model projects 1.40–2.33 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → IWA

    Model projects 1.40–2.33 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~72% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~68% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Consadole Sapporo crest
Consadole Sapporo
vs
Iwaki
Iwaki crest
12League position9
17Points17
16Goals for20
19Goals against19
-3Goal difference1

Current J2 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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