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Villarreal vs Real Betis — LaLiga

Villarreal crestVillarreal
Full time1–2
Real Betis crestReal Betis

How the call landed

LaLiga·14 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Villarreal crestVIL0–1RBReal Betis crest
Full time
Villarreal crestVIL1–2RBReal Betis crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 0-1, finished 1-2).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.30

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Mon 14 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Villarreal crestVillarreal
Projected0–1xG 0.20 · 2.00
Real Betis crestReal Betis

No strong lean — near even (23% / 31% / 46%), projecting 0-1.

VILDrawRB
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreNo88%
Total goalsUnder 2.565%
Double chanceNo strong lean77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (23% / 31% / 46%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 0.2–2.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 12%, over 2.5 goals 35%. Model projects 0.15–1.95 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → RB

    Model projects 0.15–1.95 expected goals

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~65% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Villarreal crest
Villarreal
vs
Real Betis
Real Betis crest
10League position4
12Points20
15Goals for16
14Goals against14
1Goal difference2

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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