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Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid — LaLiga

Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad
Full time0–3
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

How the call landed

LaLiga·13 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Real Sociedad crestRS2–1AMAtletico Madrid crest
Full time
Real Sociedad crestRS0–3AMAtletico Madrid crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Sun 13 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad
Projected2–1xG 1.80 · 1.40
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

No strong lean — near even (47% / 25% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

RSDrawAM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean47%
Both teams to scoreYes61%
Total goalsOver 2.560%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (47% / 25% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.8–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 61%, over 2.5 goals 60%. Model projects 1.75–1.35 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → RS

    Model projects 1.75–1.35 expected goals

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~61% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Real Sociedad crest
Real Sociedad
vs
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid crest
5League position2
19Points25
19Goals for20
18Goals against8
1Goal difference12

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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