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Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves — LaLiga

Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano
Full time1–1
Alaves crestAlaves

How the call landed

LaLiga·20 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Rayo Vallecano crestRV1–0ALAAlaves crest
Full time
Rayo Vallecano crestRV1–1ALAAlaves crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Thu 20 Aug · 21:00 SAST
Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano
Projected1–0xG 1.70 · 1.10
Alaves crestAlaves

No strong lean — near even (46% / 30% / 24%), projecting 1-0.

RVDrawALA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean46%
Both teams to scoreYes55%
Total goalsOver 2.553%
Double chanceNo strong lean76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (46% / 30% / 24%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.7–1.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 55%, over 2.5 goals 53%. Model projects 1.68–1.12 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → RV

    Model projects 1.68–1.12 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Rayo Vallecano crest
Rayo Vallecano
vs
Alaves
Alaves crest
17League position7
9Points12
12Goals for14
20Goals against11
-8Goal difference3

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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