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Alaves vs Villarreal — LaLiga

Alaves crestAlaves
Full time1–0
Villarreal crestVillarreal

How the call landed

LaLiga·28 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Alaves crestALA2–1VILVillarreal crest
Full time
Alaves crestALA1–0VILVillarreal crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 1-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.38

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Fri 28 Aug · 21:30 SAST
Alaves crestAlaves
Projected2–1xG 0.90 · 2.70
Villarreal crestVillarreal

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

ALADrawVIL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes54%
Total goalsOver 2.570%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 0.9–2.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 54%, over 2.5 goals 70%. Model projects 0.87–2.74 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → VIL

    Model projects 0.87–2.74 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~70% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Alaves crest
Alaves
vs
Villarreal
Villarreal crest
7League position10
12Points12
14Goals for15
11Goals against14
3Goal difference1

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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