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Celta Vigo vs Malaga — LaLiga

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo
Full time1–1
Malaga crestMalaga

How the call landed

LaLiga·13 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Celta Vigo crestCV1–0MALMalaga crest
Full time
Celta Vigo crestCV1–1MALMalaga crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.14

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Sun 13 Sep · 14:00 SAST
Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo
Projected1–0xG 0.20 · 0.20
Malaga crestMalaga

No strong lean — near even (38% / 28% / 34%), projecting 1-0.

CVDrawMAL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean38%
Both teams to scoreNo98%
Total goalsUnder 2.5100%
Double chanceNo strong lean66%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (38% / 28% / 34%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.2–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 2%, over 2.5 goals 0%. Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Low-tempo profile

    → Neutral

    Under 2.5 goals ~100% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Celta Vigo crest
Celta Vigo
vs
Malaga
Malaga crest
9League position20
12Points5
10Goals for7
7Goals against19
3Goal difference-12

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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