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Alaves vs Osasuna — LaLiga

Alaves crestAlaves
Full time5–2
Osasuna crestOsasuna

How the call landed

LaLiga·6 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Alaves crestALA2–1OSAOsasuna crest
Full time
Alaves crestALA5–2OSAOsasuna crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 5-2).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 5-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.38

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Sun 6 Sep · 18:30 SAST
Alaves crestAlaves
Projected2–1xG 0.90 · 2.50
Osasuna crestOsasuna

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

ALADrawOSA
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes53%
Total goalsOver 2.565%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 0.9–2.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 53%, over 2.5 goals 65%. Model projects 0.87–2.49 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → OSA

    Model projects 0.87–2.49 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~65% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Alaves crest
Alaves
vs
Osasuna
Osasuna crest
7League position12
12Points11
14Goals for10
11Goals against20
3Goal difference-10

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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