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Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid — LaLiga

Sevilla crestSevilla
Full time1–3
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

How the call landed

LaLiga·29 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Sevilla crestSEV2–1AMAtletico Madrid crest
Full time
Sevilla crestSEV1–3AMAtletico Madrid crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Sat 29 Aug · 21:30 SAST
Sevilla crestSevilla
Projected2–1xG 2.10 · 1.00
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

SEVDrawAM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes56%
Total goalsOver 2.560%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.1–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 56%, over 2.5 goals 60%. Model projects 2.07–1.01 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SEV

    Model projects 2.07–1.01 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Sevilla crest
Sevilla
vs
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid crest
6League position2
17Points25
16Goals for20
16Goals against8
0Goal difference12

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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