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Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid — LaLiga

Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
Full time3–0
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

How the call landed

LaLiga·5 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Athletic Club crestAC1–0AMAtletico Madrid crest
Full time
Athletic Club crestAC3–0AMAtletico Madrid crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 3-0).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.38

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Sat 5 Sep · 16:15 SAST
Athletic Club crestAthletic Club
Projected1–0xG 1.50 · 1.00
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 1-0.

ACDrawAM
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsUnder 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.5–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 45%. Model projects 1.46–1.00 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → AC

    Model projects 1.46–1.00 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Athletic Club crest
Athletic Club
vs
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid crest
8League position2
12Points25
12Goals for20
9Goals against8
3Goal difference12

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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