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Espanyol vs Sevilla — LaLiga

Espanyol crestEspanyol
Full time1–1
Sevilla crestSevilla

How the call landed

LaLiga·6 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Espanyol crestESP2–1SEVSevilla crest
Full time
Espanyol crestESP1–1SEVSevilla crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Sun 6 Sep · 21:00 SAST
Espanyol crestEspanyol
Projected2–1xG 2.10 · 1.00
Sevilla crestSevilla

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

ESPDrawSEV
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.561%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.1–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 61%. Model projects 2.10–1.04 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ESP

    Model projects 2.10–1.04 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~61% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Espanyol crest
Espanyol
vs
Sevilla
Sevilla crest
18League position6
8Points17
12Goals for16
14Goals against16
-2Goal difference0

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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