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Elche vs Real Sociedad — LaLiga

Elche crestElche
Full time2–3
Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

How the call landed

LaLiga·7 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Elche crestELC3–0RSReal Sociedad crest
Full time
Elche crestELC2–3RSReal Sociedad crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLaLiga
Mon 7 Sep · 21:30 SAST
Elche crestElche
Projected3–0xG 3.90 · 0.50
Real Sociedad crestReal Sociedad

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 3-0.

ELCDrawRS
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreNo65%
Total goalsOver 2.579%
Double chanceNo strong lean72%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 33% / 28%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.9–0.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 35%, over 2.5 goals 79%. Model projects 3.92–0.46 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ELC

    Model projects 3.92–0.46 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~79% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Elche crest
Elche
vs
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad crest
15League position5
10Points19
14Goals for19
17Goals against18
-3Goal difference1

Current LAL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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