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Monterrey vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX

Monterrey crestMonterrey
Full time1–0
Cruz Azul crestCruz Azul

How the call landed

Liga MX·20 Sep
Result hit
Model called
Monterrey crestMON2–1CACruz Azul crest
Full time
Monterrey crestMON1–0CACruz Azul crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-1, finished 1-0).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-0 — partial.

Confidence ModerateCalibration error 0.10

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLiga MX
Sun 20 Sep · 03:10 SAST
Monterrey crestMonterrey
Projected2–1xG 2.40 · 0.90
Cruz Azul crestCruz Azul

The model leans Monterrey (68%), projecting 2-1.

MONDrawCA
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultMonterrey win68%
Both teams to scoreYes54%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceMonterrey or draw88%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Monterrey (68%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.4–0.9 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 54%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 2.39–0.91 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → MON

    Model projects 2.39–0.91 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

Form & table

Monterrey crest
Monterrey
vs
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul crest
7League position2
20Points26
23Goals for32
18Goals against23
5Goal difference9

Current MX table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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