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Marseille vs Paris FC — Ligue 1

Marseille crestMarseille
Full time2–3
Paris FC crestParis FC

How the call landed

Ligue 1·6 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Marseille crestMAR2–0PFParis FC crest
Full time
Marseille crestMAR2–3PFParis FC crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sun 6 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Marseille crestMarseille
Projected2–0xG 2.60 · 0.60
Paris FC crestParis FC

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 2-0.

MARDrawPF
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreNo60%
Total goalsOver 2.561%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.6–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 40%, over 2.5 goals 61%. Model projects 2.59–0.56 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → MAR

    Model projects 2.59–0.56 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~61% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Marseille crest
Marseille
vs
Paris FC
Paris FC crest
8League position6
12Points14
18Goals for13
13Goals against9
5Goal difference4

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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