Skip to content
Tips8ngBeautifAI Game

Toulouse vs Lille — Ligue 1

Toulouse crestToulouse
Full time0–1
Lille crestLille

How the call landed

Ligue 1·3 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Toulouse crestTOU3–0LILLille crest
Full time
Toulouse crestTOU0–1LILLille crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Thu 3 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Toulouse crestToulouse
Projected3–0xG 3.30 · 0.60
Lille crestLille

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 3-0.

TOUDrawLIL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreNo58%
Total goalsOver 2.574%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 3.3–0.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 42%, over 2.5 goals 74%. Model projects 3.33–0.57 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → TOU

    Model projects 3.33–0.57 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~74% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Toulouse crest
Toulouse
vs
Lille
Lille crest
11League position3
10Points15
12Goals for11
11Goals against6
1Goal difference5

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

Want the full match intelligence?

Pre-match analysis and every market live in your dashboard.

Open in dashboard
More L1 fixtures →The predictions board →Today’s Tips5 →