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Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg — Ligue 1

Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes
Full time2–6
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

How the call landed

Ligue 1·6 Sep
Missed
Model called
Estac Troyes crestET1–0STRStrasbourg crest
Full time
Estac Troyes crestET2–6STRStrasbourg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-6 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sun 6 Sep · 15:00 SAST
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes
Projected1–0xG 1.20 · 1.30
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

ETDrawSTR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreNo50%
Total goalsUnder 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.2–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 50%, over 2.5 goals 44%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Estac Troyes crest
Estac Troyes
vs
Strasbourg
Strasbourg crest
17League position16
5Points7
5Goals for12
16Goals against18
-11Goal difference-6

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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