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Lyon vs Le Havre — Ligue 1

Lyon crestLyon
Full time1–1
Le Havre crestLe Havre

How the call landed

Ligue 1·29 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Lyon crestLYO2–1LHLe Havre crest
Full time
Lyon crestLYO1–1LHLe Havre crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 29 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Lyon crestLyon
Projected2–1xG 1.60 · 1.50
Le Havre crestLe Havre

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 2-1.

LYODrawLH
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreYes63%
Total goalsOver 2.561%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.6–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 63%, over 2.5 goals 61%. Over 2.5 goals ~61% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~61% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~63% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Lyon crest
Lyon
vs
Le Havre
Le Havre crest
5League position18
14Points2
13Goals for8
7Goals against15
6Goal difference-7

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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