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Lorient vs Estac Troyes — Ligue 1

Lorient crestLorient
Full time1–2
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes

How the call landed

Ligue 1·29 Aug
Missed
Model called
Lorient crestLOR1–0ETEstac Troyes crest
Full time
Lorient crestLOR1–2ETEstac Troyes crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 29 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Lorient crestLorient
Projected1–0xG 1.90 · 0.80
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

LORDrawET
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreNo53%
Total goalsUnder 2.550%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.9–0.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 47%, over 2.5 goals 50%. Model projects 1.85–0.81 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → LOR

    Model projects 1.85–0.81 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Lorient crest
Lorient
vs
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes crest
9League position17
12Points5
7Goals for5
6Goals against16
1Goal difference-11

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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