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Lille vs Paris Saint Germain — Ligue 1

Lille crestLille
Full time2–2
Paris Saint Germain crestParis Saint Germain

How the call landed

Ligue 1·28 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Lille crestLIL1–0PSGParis Saint Germain crest
Full time
Lille crestLIL2–2PSGParis Saint Germain crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Fri 28 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Lille crestLille
Projected1–0xG 0.90 · 2.20
Paris Saint Germain crestParis Saint Germain

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

LILDrawPSG
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean44%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsOver 2.558%
Double chanceNo strong lean59%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (44% / 15% / 41%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 0.9–2.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 58%. Model projects 0.87–2.17 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → PSG

    Model projects 0.87–2.17 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Lille crest
Lille
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain crest
3League position1
15Points17
11Goals for16
6Goals against9
5Goal difference7

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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