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Paris FC vs Strasbourg — Ligue 1

Paris FC crestParis FC
Full time2–1
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

How the call landed

Ligue 1·19 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Paris FC crestPF1–2STRStrasbourg crest
Full time
Paris FC crestPF2–1STRStrasbourg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.17

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 19 Sep · 17:15 SAST
Paris FC crestParis FC
Projected1–2xG 1.80 · 3.10
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

No strong lean — near even (31% / 27% / 42%), projecting 1-2.

PFDrawSTR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean42%
Both teams to scoreYes79%
Total goalsOver 2.586%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (31% / 27% / 42%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.8–3.1 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 79%, over 2.5 goals 86%. Model projects 1.78–3.12 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → STR

    Model projects 1.78–3.12 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~86% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~79% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Paris FC crest
Paris FC
vs
Strasbourg
Strasbourg crest
6League position16
14Points7
13Goals for12
9Goals against18
4Goal difference-6

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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