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Rennes vs Marseille — Ligue 1

Rennes crestRennes
Full time1–0
Marseille crestMarseille

How the call landed

Ligue 1·11 Sep
Missed
Model called
Rennes crestREN1–2MARMarseille crest
Full time
Rennes crestREN1–0MARMarseille crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.21

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Fri 11 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Rennes crestRennes
Projected1–2xG 1.20 · 1.70
Marseille crestMarseille

No strong lean — near even (25% / 30% / 45%), projecting 1-2.

RENDrawMAR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes58%
Total goalsOver 2.557%
Double chanceNo strong lean75%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (25% / 30% / 45%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.2–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 58%, over 2.5 goals 57%. Model projects 1.24–1.71 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → MAR

    Model projects 1.24–1.71 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Rennes crest
Rennes
vs
Marseille
Marseille crest
2League position8
16Points12
18Goals for18
14Goals against13
4Goal difference5

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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