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Paris FC vs Lyon — Ligue 1

Paris FC crestParis FC
Full time0–0
Lyon crestLyon

How the call landed

Ligue 1·12 Sep
Missed
Model called
Paris FC crestPF2–1LYOLyon crest
Full time
Paris FC crestPF0–0LYOLyon crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.33

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 12 Sep · 20:45 SAST
Paris FC crestParis FC
Projected2–1xG 2.00 · 1.80
Lyon crestLyon

The model leans Paris FC (57%), projecting 2-1.

PFDrawLYO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultParis FC win57%
Both teams to scoreYes71%
Total goalsOver 2.571%
Double chanceParis FC or draw77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Paris FC (57%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.0–1.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 71%, over 2.5 goals 71%. Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~71% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Paris FC crest
Paris FC
vs
Lyon
Lyon crest
6League position5
14Points14
13Goals for13
9Goals against7
4Goal difference6

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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