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Lens vs Auxerre — Ligue 1

Lens crestLens
Full time5–2
Auxerre crestAuxerre

How the call landed

Ligue 1·22 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Lens crestLEN1–0AUXAuxerre crest
Full time
Lens crestLEN5–2AUXAuxerre crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 5-2).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 5-2 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.40

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 22 Aug · 17:15 SAST
Lens crestLens
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.30
Auxerre crestAuxerre

No strong lean — near even (37% / 33% / 30%), projecting 1-0.

LENDrawAUX
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean37%
Both teams to scoreYes54%
Total goalsOver 2.550%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (37% / 33% / 30%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 54%, over 2.5 goals 50%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Lens crest
Lens
vs
Auxerre
Auxerre crest
7League position12
13Points10
16Goals for12
12Goals against18
4Goal difference-6

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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