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Marseille vs Strasbourg — Ligue 1

Marseille crestMarseille
Full time4–0
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

How the call landed

Ligue 1·21 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Marseille crestMAR2–0STRStrasbourg crest
Full time
Marseille crestMAR4–0STRStrasbourg crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 2-0, finished 4-0).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 4-0 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Fri 21 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Marseille crestMarseille
Projected2–0xG 2.10 · 0.70
Strasbourg crestStrasbourg

No strong lean — near even (47% / 15% / 38%), projecting 2-0.

MARDrawSTR
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean47%
Both teams to scoreNo54%
Total goalsOver 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean62%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (47% / 15% / 38%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.1–0.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 46%, over 2.5 goals 55%. Model projects 2.14–0.74 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → MAR

    Model projects 2.14–0.74 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Marseille crest
Marseille
vs
Strasbourg
Strasbourg crest
8League position16
12Points7
18Goals for12
13Goals against18
5Goal difference-6

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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