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Le Mans vs Stade Brestois 29 — Ligue 1

Le Mans crestLe Mans
Full time2–2
Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29

How the call landed

Ligue 1·22 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Le Mans crestLM0–3SB2Stade Brestois 29 crest
Full time
Le Mans crestLM2–2SB2Stade Brestois 29 crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.81

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 22 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Le Mans crestLe Mans
Projected0–3xG 0.50 · 3.50
Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29

The model leans Stade Brestois 29 (90%), projecting 0-3.

LMDrawSB2
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultStade Brestois 29 win90%
Both teams to scoreNo60%
Total goalsOver 2.576%
Double chanceDraw or Stade Brestois 2997%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Stade Brestois 29 (90%), projecting 0-3.

Projected 0-3 from 0.5–3.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 40%, over 2.5 goals 76%. Model projects 0.54–3.49 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SB2

    Model projects 0.54–3.49 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~76% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Le Mans crest
Le Mans
vs
Stade Brestois 29
Stade Brestois 29 crest
15League position13
7Points9
11Goals for14
16Goals against12
-5Goal difference2

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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