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Toulouse vs Lyon — Ligue 1

Toulouse crestToulouse
Full time0–2
Lyon crestLyon

How the call landed

Ligue 1·22 Aug
Missed
Model called
Toulouse crestTOU2–1LYOLyon crest
Full time
Toulouse crestTOU0–2LYOLyon crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 22 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Toulouse crestToulouse
Projected2–1xG 1.80 · 1.20
Lyon crestLyon

No strong lean — near even (48% / 29% / 23%), projecting 2-1.

TOUDrawLYO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes57%
Total goalsOver 2.556%
Double chanceNo strong lean77%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (48% / 29% / 23%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.8–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 57%, over 2.5 goals 56%. Model projects 1.76–1.17 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → TOU

    Model projects 1.76–1.17 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Toulouse crest
Toulouse
vs
Lyon
Lyon crest
11League position5
10Points14
12Goals for13
11Goals against7
1Goal difference6

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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