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Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — Ligue 1

Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes
Full time0–0
Paris FC crestParis FC

How the call landed

Ligue 1·22 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Estac Troyes crestET1–0PFParis FC crest
Full time
Estac Troyes crestET0–0PFParis FC crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.19

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickLigue 1
Sat 22 Aug · 20:45 SAST
Estac Troyes crestEstac Troyes
Projected1–0xG 1.40 · 1.00
Paris FC crestParis FC

No strong lean — near even (43% / 32% / 25%), projecting 1-0.

ETDrawPF
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean43%
Both teams to scoreNo53%
Total goalsUnder 2.558%
Double chanceNo strong lean75%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (43% / 32% / 25%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.4–1.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 47%, over 2.5 goals 42%. Model projects 1.38–0.99 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ET

    Model projects 1.38–0.99 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Estac Troyes crest
Estac Troyes
vs
Paris FC
Paris FC crest
17League position6
5Points14
5Goals for13
16Goals against9
-11Goal difference4

Current L1 table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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