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Sporting Kansas City vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City
Sat 31 Oct21:00SAST
FC Dallas crestFC Dallas

The model’s prediction

Featured pickMajor League Soccer
Sat 31 Oct · 21:00 SAST
Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City
Projected0–3xG 0.30 · 2.80
FC Dallas crestFC Dallas

No strong lean — near even (29% / 20% / 51%), projecting 0-3.

SKCDrawFD
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean51%
Both teams to scoreYes59%
Total goalsOver 2.557%
Double chanceNo strong lean71%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (29% / 20% / 51%), projecting 0-3.

Projected 0-3 from 0.3–2.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 59%, over 2.5 goals 57%. Model projects 0.30–2.84 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FD

    Model projects 0.30–2.84 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

All markets

  • Match result

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Double chance

    No strong leanToo close to call

  • Draw no bet

    No strong leanToo close to call

Double chance and draw no bet are worked out from the same win/draw/win probabilities as the result call.

Form & table

Sporting Kansas City crest
Sporting Kansas City
vs
FC Dallas
FC Dallas crest
15League position2
22Points54
37Goals for58
77Goals against47
-40Goal difference11

Current MLS table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

  1. OriginalBaseline modelCall only
    FC Dallas winConfidence 27% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model 1.0.0
  2. Revision 1Baseline modelCall only
    FC Dallas winConfidence 8% (probabilities not recorded for this version)
    model random-forest@v1
  3. Revision 2
    FC Dallas winH 31% · D 26% · A 42%Projected 1–2xG 1.15–1.67
    model random-forest@v1
  4. Revision 3
    FC Dallas winH 33% · D 24% · A 44%Projected 1–2xG 0.99–1.83
    model random-forest@v1
  5. Revision 4
    FC Dallas winH 33% · D 24% · A 44%Projected 1–2xG 0.99–1.83
    model random-forest@v1
  6. Revision 5Current
    FC Dallas winH 29% · D 20% · A 51%Projected 0–3xG 0.30–2.84
    model random-forest@v1

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