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Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union — Major League Soccer

Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City
Full time3–4
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

How the call landed

Major League Soccer·20 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Sporting Kansas City crestSKC3–0PUPhiladelphia Union crest
Full time
Sporting Kansas City crestSKC3–4PUPhiladelphia Union crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called No, was Yes).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 3-4 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.61

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickMajor League Soccer
Sun 20 Sep · 02:30 SAST
Sporting Kansas City crestSporting Kansas City
Projected3–0xG 2.70 · 0.70
Philadelphia Union crestPhiladelphia Union

The model leans Sporting Kansas City (78%), projecting 3-0.

SKCDrawPU
Model confidenceHigh
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultSporting Kansas City win78%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsOver 2.566%
Double chanceSporting Kansas City or draw92%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Sporting Kansas City (78%), projecting 3-0.

Projected 3-0 from 2.7–0.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 66%. Model projects 2.69–0.74 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → SKC

    Model projects 2.69–0.74 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~66% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Sporting Kansas City crest
Sporting Kansas City
vs
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union crest
15League position6
22Points47
38Goals for62
80Goals against50
-42Goal difference12

Current MLS table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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