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Brentford vs Sunderland — Premier League

Brentford crestBrentford
Full time1–1
Sunderland crestSunderland

How the call landed

Premier League·5 Sep
1 market hit
Model called
Brentford crestBRE1–2SUNSunderland crest
Full time
Brentford crestBRE1–1SUNSunderland crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-1 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.14

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sat 5 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Brentford crestBrentford
Projected1–2xG 1.50 · 1.40
Sunderland crestSunderland

No strong lean — near even (35% / 28% / 37%), projecting 1-2.

BREDrawSUN
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean37%
Both teams to scoreYes59%
Total goalsOver 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean65%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (35% / 28% / 37%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.5–1.4 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 59%, over 2.5 goals 55%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Brentford crest
Brentford
vs
Sunderland
Sunderland crest
6League position20
11Points5
14Goals for6
9Goals against14
5Goal difference-8

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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