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Crystal Palace vs Manchester City — Premier League

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
Full time1–4
Manchester City crestManchester City

How the call landed

Premier League·28 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Crystal Palace crestCRY1–2MCIManchester City crest
Full time
Crystal Palace crestCRY1–4MCIManchester City crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-2, finished 1-4).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 1-4 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.35

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Fri 28 Aug · 21:00 SAST
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
Projected1–2xG 1.10 · 2.30
Manchester City crestManchester City

No strong lean — near even (26% / 33% / 41%), projecting 1-2.

CRYDrawMCI
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean41%
Both teams to scoreYes60%
Total goalsOver 2.566%
Double chanceNo strong lean74%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (26% / 33% / 41%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.1–2.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 60%, over 2.5 goals 66%. Model projects 1.10–2.30 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → MCI

    Model projects 1.10–2.30 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~66% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Crystal Palace crest
Crystal Palace
vs
Manchester City
Manchester City crest
17League position1
7Points21
9Goals for20
19Goals against9
-10Goal difference11

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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