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Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest — Premier League

Liverpool crestLiverpool
Full time2–2
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

How the call landed

Premier League·29 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Liverpool crestLIV2–1NFONottingham Forest crest
Full time
Liverpool crestLIV2–2NFONottingham Forest crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sat 29 Aug · 13:30 SAST
Liverpool crestLiverpool
Projected2–1xG 1.50 · 2.20
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

No strong lean — near even (39% / 32% / 29%), projecting 2-1.

LIVDrawNFO
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes69%
Total goalsOver 2.571%
Double chanceNo strong lean71%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (39% / 32% / 29%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.5–2.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 69%, over 2.5 goals 71%. Model projects 1.50–2.20 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NFO

    Model projects 1.50–2.20 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~69% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Liverpool crest
Liverpool
vs
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest crest
4League position18
15Points6
11Goals for6
8Goals against10
3Goal difference-4

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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