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Bournemouth vs Brentford — Premier League

Bournemouth crestBournemouth
Full time2–2
Brentford crestBrentford

How the call landed

Premier League·12 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Bournemouth crestBOU2–1BREBrentford crest
Full time
Bournemouth crestBOU2–2BREBrentford crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.18

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sat 12 Sep · 16:00 SAST
Bournemouth crestBournemouth
Projected2–1xG 2.20 · 1.60
Brentford crestBrentford

No strong lean — near even (42% / 21% / 37%), projecting 2-1.

BOUDrawBRE
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean42%
Both teams to scoreYes70%
Total goalsOver 2.571%
Double chanceNo strong lean63%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (42% / 21% / 37%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 2.2–1.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 70%, over 2.5 goals 71%. Model projects 2.15–1.55 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → BOU

    Model projects 2.15–1.55 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~71% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~70% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Bournemouth crest
Bournemouth
vs
Brentford
Brentford crest
13League position6
9Points11
12Goals for14
13Goals against9
-1Goal difference5

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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