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Everton vs Crystal Palace — Premier League

Everton crestEverton
Full time2–0
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

How the call landed

Premier League·22 Aug
Missed
Model called
Everton crestEVE1–2CRYCrystal Palace crest
Full time
Everton crestEVE2–0CRYCrystal Palace crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (home_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-0 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.23

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sat 22 Aug · 16:00 SAST
Everton crestEverton
Projected1–2xG 1.30 · 2.00
Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

No strong lean — near even (24% / 28% / 48%), projecting 1-2.

EVEDrawCRY
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean48%
Both teams to scoreYes63%
Total goalsOver 2.564%
Double chanceNo strong lean76%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (24% / 28% / 48%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.3–2.0 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 63%, over 2.5 goals 64%. Model projects 1.34–1.96 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → CRY

    Model projects 1.34–1.96 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~64% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~63% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Everton crest
Everton
vs
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace crest
11League position17
10Points7
8Goals for9
9Goals against19
-1Goal difference-10

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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