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Nottingham Forest vs Leeds — Premier League

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
Full time0–1
Leeds crestLeeds

How the call landed

Premier League·22 Aug
1 market hit
Model called
Nottingham Forest crestNFO2–0LEELeeds crest
Full time
Nottingham Forest crestNFO0–1LEELeeds crest
Markets
Both teams to score: NoTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (No).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-1 — missed.

Confidence HighCalibration error 0.53

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sat 22 Aug · 16:00 SAST
Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
Projected2–0xG 2.40 · 0.80
Leeds crestLeeds

The model leans Nottingham Forest (73%), projecting 2-0.

NFODrawLEE
Model confidenceModerate
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNottingham Forest win73%
Both teams to scoreNo51%
Total goalsOver 2.562%
Double chanceNottingham Forest or draw90%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Nottingham Forest (73%), projecting 2-0.

Projected 2-0 from 2.4–0.8 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 49%, over 2.5 goals 62%. Model projects 2.41–0.78 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → NFO

    Model projects 2.41–0.78 expected goals

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Model conviction

    → Neutral

    Strong, decisive model signal

Form & table

Nottingham Forest crest
Nottingham Forest
vs
Leeds
Leeds crest
18League position7
6Points11
6Goals for9
10Goals against6
-4Goal difference3

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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