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Newcastle vs Liverpool — Premier League

Newcastle crestNewcastle
Full time2–2
Liverpool crestLiverpool

How the call landed

Premier League·23 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Newcastle crestNEW1–2LIVLiverpool crest
Full time
Newcastle crestNEW2–2LIVLiverpool crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.15

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sun 23 Aug · 17:30 SAST
Newcastle crestNewcastle
Projected1–2xG 1.50 · 1.70
Liverpool crestLiverpool

No strong lean — near even (30% / 32% / 38%), projecting 1-2.

NEWDrawLIV
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean38%
Both teams to scoreYes64%
Total goalsOver 2.562%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (30% / 32% / 38%), projecting 1-2.

Projected 1-2 from 1.5–1.7 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 64%, over 2.5 goals 62%. Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Newcastle crest
Newcastle
vs
Liverpool
Liverpool crest
8League position4
11Points15
12Goals for11
14Goals against8
-2Goal difference3

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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