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Manchester City vs Bournemouth — Premier League

Manchester City crestManchester City
Full time2–1
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

How the call landed

Premier League·23 Aug
Result hit
Model called
Manchester City crestMCI1–0BOUBournemouth crest
Full time
Manchester City crestMCI2–1BOUBournemouth crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).

Surprised the model

  • –Scoreline differed (called 1-0, finished 2-1).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Under 2.5, was Over 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-1 — partial.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.22

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Sun 23 Aug · 16:00 SAST
Manchester City crestManchester City
Projected1–0xG 1.30 · 1.20
Bournemouth crestBournemouth

No strong lean — near even (54% / 16% / 30%), projecting 1-0.

MCIDrawBOU
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean54%
Both teams to scoreYes51%
Total goalsUnder 2.555%
Double chanceNo strong lean70%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (54% / 16% / 30%), projecting 1-0.

Projected 1-0 from 1.3–1.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 51%, over 2.5 goals 45%. Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Manchester City crest
Manchester City
vs
Bournemouth
Bournemouth crest
1League position13
21Points9
20Goals for12
9Goals against13
11Goal difference-1

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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