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Aston Villa vs Arsenal — Premier League

Aston Villa crestAston Villa
Full time0–1
Arsenal crestArsenal

How the call landed

Premier League·31 Aug
Exact score
Model called
Aston Villa crestAVL0–1ARSArsenal crest
Full time
Aston Villa crestAVL0–1ARSArsenal crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Under 2.5

Got right

  • –Called the result correctly.
  • –Nailed the exact scoreline (0-1).
  • –Total goals call landed (Under 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).

Takeaway. Called away win, finished 0-1 — correct.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.38

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Mon 31 Aug · 21:00 SAST
Aston Villa crestAston Villa
Projected0–1xG 1.00 · 1.60
Arsenal crestArsenal

No strong lean — near even (33% / 28% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

AVLDrawARS
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean39%
Both teams to scoreYes50%
Total goalsUnder 2.552%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (33% / 28% / 39%), projecting 0-1.

Projected 0-1 from 1.0–1.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 50%, over 2.5 goals 48%. Model projects 1.00–1.60 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → ARS

    Model projects 1.00–1.60 expected goals

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Aston Villa crest
Aston Villa
vs
Arsenal
Arsenal crest
9League position2
11Points21
9Goals for13
12Goals against5
-3Goal difference8

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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