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Fulham vs Chelsea — Premier League

Fulham crestFulham
Full time2–3
Chelsea crestChelsea

How the call landed

Premier League·24 Aug
2 markets hit
Model called
Fulham crestFUL2–1CHEChelsea crest
Full time
Fulham crestFUL2–3CHEChelsea crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-3 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.20

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPremier League
Mon 24 Aug · 21:00 SAST
Fulham crestFulham
Projected2–1xG 1.80 · 1.30
Chelsea crestChelsea

No strong lean — near even (45% / 30% / 25%), projecting 2-1.

FULDrawCHE
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean45%
Both teams to scoreYes61%
Total goalsOver 2.560%
Double chanceNo strong lean75%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (45% / 30% / 25%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.8–1.3 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 61%, over 2.5 goals 60%. Model projects 1.80–1.30 expected goals

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Expected-goals edge

    → FUL

    Model projects 1.80–1.30 expected goals

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~61% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Fulham crest
Fulham
vs
Chelsea
Chelsea crest
15League position5
8Points13
8Goals for17
10Goals against15
-2Goal difference2

Current EPL table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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