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Estrela vs Academico Viseu — Primeira Liga

Estrela crestEstrela
Full time0–2
Academico Viseu crestAcademico Viseu

How the call landed

Primeira Liga·20 Sep
Missed
Model called
Estrela crestEST2–1AVAcademico Viseu crest
Full time
Estrela crestEST0–2AVAcademico Viseu crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).
  • –Both teams to score call missed (called Yes, was No).
  • –Total goals call missed (called Over 2.5, was Under 2.5).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 0-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.14

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPrimeira Liga
Sun 20 Sep · 16:30 SAST
Estrela crestEstrela
Projected2–1xG 1.60 · 1.50
Academico Viseu crestAcademico Viseu

No strong lean — near even (36% / 33% / 31%), projecting 2-1.

ESTDrawAV
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean36%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.560%
Double chanceNo strong lean69%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (36% / 33% / 31%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.6–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 60%. BTTS ~62% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Estrela crest
Estrela
vs
Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu crest
12League position6
10Points17
14Goals for13
17Goals against11
-3Goal difference2

Current Primeira table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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