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Tips8ngBeautifAI Game

Estoril vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga

Estoril crestEstoril
Full time1–2
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

How the call landed

Primeira Liga·20 Sep
2 markets hit
Model called
Estoril crestEST2–1CPCasa Pia crest
Full time
Estoril crestEST1–2CPCasa Pia crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (away_win).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 1-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.11

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickPrimeira Liga
Sun 20 Sep · 19:00 SAST
Estoril crestEstoril
Projected2–1xG 1.60 · 1.60
Casa Pia crestCasa Pia

No strong lean — near even (34% / 33% / 33%), projecting 2-1.

ESTDrawCP
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultNo strong lean34%
Both teams to scoreYes62%
Total goalsOver 2.560%
Double chanceNo strong lean67%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

No strong lean — near even (34% / 33% / 33%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.6–1.6 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 62%, over 2.5 goals 60%. Over 2.5 goals ~60% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~60% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~62% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Estoril crest
Estoril
vs
Casa Pia
Casa Pia crest
18League position16
2Points7
5Goals for5
15Goals against17
-10Goal difference-12

Current Primeira table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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