SC Braga
Gil VicenteSC BragaGil Vicente18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.
Projected 1-0 from 0.5–0.2 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 6%, over 2.5 goals 3%. Under 2.5 goals ~97% likely
Under 2.5 goals ~97% likely
Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced
Current Primeira table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.
| Outcome | Model | Market | Gap | Fair odds (model) | Avg market odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Braga | 45% | 60% | -15 pts | 2.22 | 1.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | +2 pts | 3.85 | 3.83 |
| Gil Vicente | 29% | 16% | +13 pts | 3.45 | 5.91 |
Market = average of 6 bookmakers with their margin (≈107%) removed, snapshot . Fair odds are 1 ÷ the model’s probability. Two estimates side by side — not a betting recommendation; a gap is not evidence of value. 18+, play responsibly.
Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.
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