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Las Palmas vs Valladolid — Segunda División

Las Palmas crestLas Palmas
Full time2–2
Valladolid crestValladolid

How the call landed

Segunda División·4 Oct
2 markets hit
Model called
Las Palmas crestLP2–1VALValladolid crest
Full time
Las Palmas crestLP2–2VALValladolid crest
Markets
Both teams to score: YesTotal goals: Over 2.5

Got right

  • –Both teams to score call landed (Yes).
  • –Total goals call landed (Over 2.5).

Surprised the model

  • –Result went the other way (draw).

Takeaway. Called home win, finished 2-2 — missed.

Confidence LeanCalibration error 0.28

What the model said before kickoff

Featured pickSegunda División
Sun 4 Oct · 18:30 SAST
Las Palmas crestLas Palmas
Projected2–1xG 1.70 · 1.50
Valladolid crestValladolid

The model leans Las Palmas (53%), projecting 2-1.

LPDrawVAL
Model confidenceLean
LeanModerateHigh
Markets
ResultLas Palmas win53%
Both teams to scoreYes64%
Total goalsOver 2.562%
Double chanceLas Palmas or draw81%
Read the case

18+ · Model predictions are statistical estimates for information and entertainment — not betting advice, and never a guarantee. Past accuracy doesn’t predict future results. Play responsibly.

The case

The model leans Las Palmas (53%), projecting 2-1.

Projected 2-1 from 1.7–1.5 expected goals; both-teams-to-score 64%, over 2.5 goals 62%. Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

Tactical factors

What tips the balance

  • Open, high-scoring profile

    → Neutral

    Over 2.5 goals ~62% likely

  • Both teams to score

    → Neutral

    BTTS ~64% likely

  • Tight race

    → Neutral

    Low model conviction — outcome finely balanced

Form & table

Las Palmas crest
Las Palmas
vs
Valladolid
Valladolid crest
14League position15
14Points12
14Goals for16
19Goals against16
-5Goal difference0

Current SEG table; form is the last five league results, most recent last.

Accountability

Prediction receipts

Every published version of this prediction is stored and never edited. The version live at kickoff is the one scored against the result.

No published versions recorded for this match.

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